TEGMA Fall Symposium Highlights Industry Trends and Challenges
TEGMA’s Fall Symposium returned to Kansas City, August 18-20, once again in collaboration with the U.S. Surface Transportation Board’s National Grain Car Council meeting—marking the 16th year of this valuable partnership. The event drew 170 members and colleagues, offering a forum to exchange insights and hear directly from leaders across the agriculture and transportation industries.
This year’s program featured a dynamic lineup of speakers addressing critical issues and opportunities shaping the future of grain, transportation, and global trade. Highlights included Shaun Haney, Founder of RealAgriculture, on navigating volatility in modern agriculture; Doug Berven, Vice President of Corporate Affairs at POET, on the potential of ag; Francisco Scott, Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, with an economic outlook; Rodrigo Rubio, Bulk Director at Ferromex, with a growth overview of GMXT; and Anthony Hatch, Founder & President of ABH Consulting, on the state of railroads amidst ongoing challenges.
Click here for presentation slides.
Shaun Haney, Founder, RealAgriculture
”Steering through Headwinds: Trade, Policy, and Volatility in Modern Agriculture”
Haney provided an overview of current market conditions and farmers’ response to policy developments. Profitability for crops is poor, he said, as high costs and crop surpluses collide with trade restrictions and policy uncertainty. The crop market outlook is a strong contrast to cattle markets, which continue to see record high prices. Curiously, farmer sentiment has lagged market conditions, a result Haney suspects is the product of positive views of President Trump, increases in reference prices, and deregulation. Sentiment aside, economic reality is causing farmers to cut back on expenses, and machinery is the hardest-hit segment. As the Trump Administration shows little clarity on its strategic intent with trade policy—is the goal to raise revenue or negotiate deals?—a resolution to the trade war may still be far off. How the administration will approach USMCA review will be important, and it presents tensions between Trump’s larger agenda and his approach on trade policy to date. Haney closed on a note about the agricultural transportation industry: “among the growth challenges is that the industry works as well as it does.” Even so, he said, it is essential infrastructure to agriculture, a vital ingredient in the ability of North American agriculture to compete globally.
Doug Berven, Vice President of Corporate Affairs, POET
”The Potential of Ag”
Berven made the case that the bioethanol industry could help meet the world’s growing food needs as population booms in the developing world raise questions about supplies by 2050. Berven argued that the “food vs. fuel” debate is settled—biofuels spur more production of food or feed at affordable prices by creating demand for starch that supports lower-cost consumption of corn’s residual protein, oil, and other nutritional components. American bioethanol companies can grow in emerging markets and make a positive difference abroad by exporting not just our corn, but the science, technology, and agronomy that facilitate corn yields unthinkable a generation ago. Especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, vast underutilized or abandoned lands could support local production that supplements imports from high yield countries like the U.S. and supports local livelihoods and energy production. POET has supported such projects across 16 African nations, which Berven cited as further evidence that bioproducts can help solve global challenges.
Francisco Scott, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
”Outlook for the U.S. and U.S. Agriculture”
Scott provided a macro-economic outlook for the whole economy before providing a focused look at the agricultural economy. Broadly, the economy is in a steady state: growth is strong, unemployment is at an acceptable low, and inflation is sub-optimal but generally stable. The FOMC has consequently projected modest rate cuts over the next three years. The full effects of trade policy are not yet reflected in end-user costs, but costs are nonetheless being implemented and therefore realized by importing businesses. Pre-tariff profit margins were large and provided some cushion to avoid passing tariffs to customers, which explains why import prices have not coincided with duties paid. In the ag sector, there is some reason for concern. Farm loan rates remain high, and crop producers are unprofitable, though cattle producers are enjoying large profit margins, in part thanks to low feed prices and the smallest cattle inventory in nearly 75 years. The softening ag economy has led to strong contractions in farm machinery and equipment loan volume rates, re-emphasizing Haney’s earlier point about the exposure of the machinery sector. As a record corn crop is set to come on the market, biofuels and export demand that absorbed surpluses in prior years is unlikely to further support prices. Farm loan portfolios have not yet indicated signs of significant stress (and rates have not risen), but they should be watched closely. In the coming years, biofuels and trade policy will be essential to reversing ag economic trends absent a significant supply correction from planting decisions.
Rodrigo Rubio, Bulk Director, Ferromex
”GMXT: Overview on Growth”
Rubio provided an overview of FXE’s operations and recovery since challenges peaked during July 2024 at the height of a migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. Overall, Rubio reports the recovery as having been strong, exceeding target speeds, and enjoying sharp declines in delays, inventory, and theft incidents. The recovery was supported by new operating procedures and cooperation from the Mexican government to mitigate the presence of migrants, including by the deployment of National Guard troops along routes and the border. Looking ahead, infrastructure investments and acquisitions of additional locomotives and railcars is aimed at long-term improved performance. The investments include $580 million in terminals, sidings, and double tracks to improve fluidity and velocity. SENASICA approvals are proceeding at pace. Rubio concluded that these investments, greater interline partnerships, and resiliency improvements made in response to the 2024 crisis provide a favorable outlook for FXE’s operations in the coming years.
Anthony Hatch, Founder & President, ABH Consulting
”Rails Amidst Chaos”
Tony Hatch’s presentation highlighted both the strengths and challenges facing the rail industry. He noted railroads’ enduring competitive advantages, such as fuel and labor efficiency, robust infrastructure, and strong financial health, while cautioning that these advantages are being tested by technological change, trade disruptions, and service reliability concerns. He argued that the era of value creation through cost-cutting has run its course, and that growth must now come from areas like intermodal, industrial development, and stronger partnerships with short lines. At the same time, he pointed to the complicating factors of trade policy uncertainty, the prolonged trucking glut, and investor pressure, all of which create difficulties in sustaining a consistent growth strategy.
On the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger, Hatch outlined potential benefits, including reduced interline issues, efficiency gains, and expanded market opportunities. However, he emphasized that the risks are substantial, ranging from regulatory challenges and possible structural changes to the likelihood of required concessions that could offset expected synergies. He observed that uncertainty about regulatory interpretation, particularly around “enhanced competition,” makes outcomes difficult to predict. More broadly, he suggested that mergers create distraction and open scrutiny of industry practices, raising the question of whether potential gains outweigh the risks. Hatch concluded that the railroads’ longer-term prospects will depend on balancing investor demands with sustained operational improvements and pursuing growth strategies that strengthen service and reliability.